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Sky Cat

If US Attacks Syria Expect an Asymmetric Russian Response

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Sky Cat   
Sky Cat

If US Attacks Syria Expect an Asymmetric Russian Response

Moscow needn't engage in a linear tit-for-tat response, it can do something much more unexpected

The tensions between Russia and the USA have reached an unprecedented level. I fully agree with the participants of this CrossTalk show – the situation is even worse and more dangerous than during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Both sides are now going to the so-called “Plan B” which, simply put, stand for, at best, no negotiations and, at worst, a war between Russia and the USA.

The key thing to understand in the Russian stance in this, an other, recent conflicts with the USA is that Russia is still much weaker than the USA and that she therefore does not want war. That does not, however, mean that she is not actively preparing for war. In fact, she very much and actively does. All this means is that should a conflict occur, Russia you try, as best can be, to keep it as limited as possible.

In theory, these are, very roughly, the possible levels of confrontation:

A military standoff à la Berlin in 1961. One could argue that this is what is already taking place right now, albeit in a more long-distance and less visible way.

A single military incident, such as what happened recently when Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 and Russia chose not to retaliate.

A series of localized clashes similar to what is currently happening between India and Pakistan.

A conflict limited to the Syrian theater of war (say like the war between the UK and Argentina over the Malvinas Islands).

A regional or global military confrontation between the USA and Russia.

A full scale thermonuclear war between the USA and Russia

During my years as a student of military strategy I have participated in many exercises on escalation and de-escalation and I can attest that while it is very easy to come up with escalatory scenarios, I have yet to see a credible scenario for de-escalation. What is possible, however, is the so-called “horizontal escalation” or “asymmetrical escalation” in which one side choses not to up the ante or directly escalate, but instead choses a different target for retaliation, not necessarily a more valuable one, just a different one on the same level of conceptual importance (in the USA Joshua M. Epstein and Spencer D. Bakich did most of the groundbreaking work on this topic).

The main reason why we can expect the Kremlin to try to find asymmetrical options to respond to a US attack is that in the Syrian context Russia is hopelessly outgunned by the US/NATO, at least in quantitative terms. The logical solutions for the Russians is to use their qualitative advantage or to seek “horizontal targets” as possible retaliatory options. This week, something very interesting and highly uncharacteristic happened: Major General Igor Konashenkov, the Chief of the Directorate of Media service and Information of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, openly mentioned one such option. Here is what he said:

“As for Kirby’s threats about possible Russian aircraft losses and the sending of Russian servicemen back to Russia in body bags, I would say that we know exactly where and how many “unofficial specialists” operate in Syria and in the Aleppo province and we know that they are involved in the operational planning and that they supervise the operations of the militants. Of course, one can continue to insist that they are unsuccessfully involved in trying to separate the al-Nusra terrorists from the “opposition” forces. But if somebody tries to implement these threats, it is by no means certain that these militants will have to time to get the hell out of there.”

Nice, no? Konashenkov appears to be threatening the “militants” but he is sure to mention that there are plenty of “unofficial specialists” amongst these militants and that Russia knows exactly where they are and how many of them there are. Of course, officially, Obama has declared that there are a few hundred such US special advisors in Syria. A well-informed Russian source suggests that there are up to 5’000 foreign ‘advisors’ to the Takfiris including about 4’000 Americans. I suppose that the truth is somewhere between these two figures.

So the Russian threat is simple: you attack us and we will attack US forces in Syria. Of course, Russia will vehemently deny targeting US servicemen and insist that the strike was only against terrorists, but both sides understand what is happening here. Interestingly, just last week the Iranian Fars news agency reported that such a Russian attack had already happened:

30 Israeli, Foreign Intelligence Officers Killed in Russia’s Caliber Missile Attack in Aleppo:

“The Russian warships fired three Caliber missiles at the foreign officers’ coordination operations room in Dar Ezza region in the Western part of Aleppo near Sam’an mountain, killing 30 Israeli and western officers,” the Arabic-language service of Russia’s Sputniknews agency quoted battlefield source in Aleppo as saying on Wednesday. The operations room was located in the Western part of Aleppo province in the middle of sky-high Sam’an mountain and old caves. The region is deep into a chain of mountains. Several US, Turkish, Saudi, Qatari and British officers were also killed along with the Israeli officers. The foreign officers who were killed in the Aleppo operations room were directing the terrorists’ attacks in Aleppo and Idlib.”

Whether this really happened or whether the Russians are leaking such stories to indicate that this could happen, the fact remains that US forces in Syria could become an obvious target for Russian retaliation, whether by cruise missile, gravity bombs or direct action operation by Russian special forces. The US also has several covert military installations in Syria, including at least one airfield with V-22 Osprey multi-mission tiltrotor aircraft.

Another interesting recent development has been the Fox News report that Russians are deploying S-300V (aka “SA-23 Gladiator anti-missile and anti-aircraft system”) in Syria. Check out this excellent article for a detailed discussion of the capabilities of this missile system. I will summarize it by saying that the S-300V can engage ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, very low RCS (“stealth”) aircraft and AWACS aircraft. This is an Army/Army Corps -level air defense system, well capable of defending most of the Syrian airspace, but also reach well into Turkey, Cyprus, the eastern Mediterranean and Lebanon. The powerful radars of this system could not only detect and engage US aircraft (including “stealth”) at a long distance, but they could also provide a tremendous help for the few Russian air superiority fighters by giving them a clear pictures of the skies and enemy aircraft by using encrypted datalinks. Finally, US air doctrine is extremely dependent on the use of AWACS aircraft to guide and support US fighters. The S-300V will forces US/NATO AWACS to operate at a most uncomfortable distance. Between the longer-range radars of the Russian Sukhois, the radars on the Russian cruisers off the Syrian coast, and the S-300 and S-300V radars on the ground, the Russians will have a much better situational awareness than their US counterparts.

It appears that the Russians are trying hard to compensate for their numerical inferiority by deploying high-end systems for which the US has no real equivalent or good counter-measures.

...

(continued at...)

http://russia-insider.com/en/russian-options-against-us-attack-syria/ri16870

 

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Team Uzi   
Team Uzi
50 minutes ago, Sky Cat said:

If US Attacks Syria Expect an Asymmetric Russian Response

Moscow needn't engage in a linear tit-for-tat response, it can do something much more unexpected

The tensions between Russia and the USA have reached an unprecedented level. I fully agree with the participants of this CrossTalk show – the situation is even worse and more dangerous than during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Both sides are now going to the so-called “Plan B” which, simply put, stand for, at best, no negotiations and, at worst, a war between Russia and the USA.

The key thing to understand in the Russian stance in this, an other, recent conflicts with the USA is that Russia is still much weaker than the USA and that she therefore does not want war. That does not, however, mean that she is not actively preparing for war. In fact, she very much and actively does. All this means is that should a conflict occur, Russia you try, as best can be, to keep it as limited as possible.

In theory, these are, very roughly, the possible levels of confrontation:

A military standoff à la Berlin in 1961. One could argue that this is what is already taking place right now, albeit in a more long-distance and less visible way.

A single military incident, such as what happened recently when Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 and Russia chose not to retaliate.

A series of localized clashes similar to what is currently happening between India and Pakistan.

A conflict limited to the Syrian theater of war (say like the war between the UK and Argentina over the Malvinas Islands).

A regional or global military confrontation between the USA and Russia.

A full scale thermonuclear war between the USA and Russia

During my years as a student of military strategy I have participated in many exercises on escalation and de-escalation and I can attest that while it is very easy to come up with escalatory scenarios, I have yet to see a credible scenario for de-escalation. What is possible, however, is the so-called “horizontal escalation” or “asymmetrical escalation” in which one side choses not to up the ante or directly escalate, but instead choses a different target for retaliation, not necessarily a more valuable one, just a different one on the same level of conceptual importance (in the USA Joshua M. Epstein and Spencer D. Bakich did most of the groundbreaking work on this topic).

The main reason why we can expect the Kremlin to try to find asymmetrical options to respond to a US attack is that in the Syrian context Russia is hopelessly outgunned by the US/NATO, at least in quantitative terms. The logical solutions for the Russians is to use their qualitative advantage or to seek “horizontal targets” as possible retaliatory options. This week, something very interesting and highly uncharacteristic happened: Major General Igor Konashenkov, the Chief of the Directorate of Media service and Information of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, openly mentioned one such option. Here is what he said:

“As for Kirby’s threats about possible Russian aircraft losses and the sending of Russian servicemen back to Russia in body bags, I would say that we know exactly where and how many “unofficial specialists” operate in Syria and in the Aleppo province and we know that they are involved in the operational planning and that they supervise the operations of the militants. Of course, one can continue to insist that they are unsuccessfully involved in trying to separate the al-Nusra terrorists from the “opposition” forces. But if somebody tries to implement these threats, it is by no means certain that these militants will have to time to get the hell out of there.”

Nice, no? Konashenkov appears to be threatening the “militants” but he is sure to mention that there are plenty of “unofficial specialists” amongst these militants and that Russia knows exactly where they are and how many of them there are. Of course, officially, Obama has declared that there are a few hundred such US special advisors in Syria. A well-informed Russian source suggests that there are up to 5’000 foreign ‘advisors’ to the Takfiris including about 4’000 Americans. I suppose that the truth is somewhere between these two figures.

So the Russian threat is simple: you attack us and we will attack US forces in Syria. Of course, Russia will vehemently deny targeting US servicemen and insist that the strike was only against terrorists, but both sides understand what is happening here. Interestingly, just last week the Iranian Fars news agency reported that such a Russian attack had already happened:

30 Israeli, Foreign Intelligence Officers Killed in Russia’s Caliber Missile Attack in Aleppo:

“The Russian warships fired three Caliber missiles at the foreign officers’ coordination operations room in Dar Ezza region in the Western part of Aleppo near Sam’an mountain, killing 30 Israeli and western officers,” the Arabic-language service of Russia’s Sputniknews agency quoted battlefield source in Aleppo as saying on Wednesday. The operations room was located in the Western part of Aleppo province in the middle of sky-high Sam’an mountain and old caves. The region is deep into a chain of mountains. Several US, Turkish, Saudi, Qatari and British officers were also killed along with the Israeli officers. The foreign officers who were killed in the Aleppo operations room were directing the terrorists’ attacks in Aleppo and Idlib.”

Whether this really happened or whether the Russians are leaking such stories to indicate that this could happen, the fact remains that US forces in Syria could become an obvious target for Russian retaliation, whether by cruise missile, gravity bombs or direct action operation by Russian special forces. The US also has several covert military installations in Syria, including at least one airfield with V-22 Osprey multi-mission tiltrotor aircraft.

Another interesting recent development has been the Fox News report that Russians are deploying S-300V (aka “SA-23 Gladiator anti-missile and anti-aircraft system”) in Syria. Check out this excellent article for a detailed discussion of the capabilities of this missile system. I will summarize it by saying that the S-300V can engage ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, very low RCS (“stealth”) aircraft and AWACS aircraft. This is an Army/Army Corps -level air defense system, well capable of defending most of the Syrian airspace, but also reach well into Turkey, Cyprus, the eastern Mediterranean and Lebanon. The powerful radars of this system could not only detect and engage US aircraft (including “stealth”) at a long distance, but they could also provide a tremendous help for the few Russian air superiority fighters by giving them a clear pictures of the skies and enemy aircraft by using encrypted datalinks. Finally, US air doctrine is extremely dependent on the use of AWACS aircraft to guide and support US fighters. The S-300V will forces US/NATO AWACS to operate at a most uncomfortable distance. Between the longer-range radars of the Russian Sukhois, the radars on the Russian cruisers off the Syrian coast, and the S-300 and S-300V radars on the ground, the Russians will have a much better situational awareness than their US counterparts.

It appears that the Russians are trying hard to compensate for their numerical inferiority by deploying high-end systems for which the US has no real equivalent or good counter-measures.

...

(continued at...)

http://russia-insider.com/en/russian-options-against-us-attack-syria/ri16870

 

Russians have a lot of really kewl toys at their disposal.

Americans have a regime of nincompoops that aren't even Caucasian.

That being said, Putin can drink, swim and go shoot a lion in the face without losing any sleep over what this geh administration that would have to sit around and sing something more geh and raise taxes to obtain some other geh committee to write something on a piece of paper that some other geh committee would study the impact on the natural habitat of some geh tree toad which resides in the forest of wood that the paper or

source of the pages that the document was written in the first place. And thusly, printed in triplicate and sent to eventually every Libtard mayor in the United States, whereby they all go to Starbucks and order a medium chia seed enhanced latte sprinkled with gluten free carob chips and kale powder.

So, what the phuque is Putin worried about?

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Sky Cat   
Sky Cat
34 minutes ago, Team Uzi said:

Russians have a lot of really kewl toys at their disposal.

Americans have a regime of nincompoops that aren't even Caucasian.

That being said, Putin can drink, swim and go shoot a lion in the face without losing any sleep over what this geh administration that would have to sit around and sing something more geh and raise taxes to obtain some other geh committee to write something on a piece of paper that some other geh committee would study the impact on the natural habitat of some geh tree toad which resides in the forest of wood that the paper or

source of the pages that the document was written in the first place. And thusly, printed in triplicate and sent to eventually every Libtard mayor in the United States, whereby they all go to Starbucks and order a medium chia seed enhanced latte sprinkled with gluten free carob chips and kale powder.

So, what the phuque is Putin worried about?

:lol_alpha: you make some good points about the U.S. administration, even you a lot of liberals are actually what they claim to hate, especially the strong leftist liberals. :yeah2:

 

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Team Uzi   
Team Uzi
9 hours ago, Sky Cat said:

:lol_alpha: you make some good points about the U.S. administration, even you a lot of liberals are actually what they claim to hate, especially the strong leftist liberals. :yeah2:

 

Government never does anything well.

Especially Libtard regimes.

They couldn't engineer their way out of a wet paper bag.

I'm not terribly concerned about war against Russia at this time.

Russia is anxious to see the Obama regime exit the White House as much as true Americans do.

They are probably looking forward to working with President Trump.

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Guest   
Guest
10 hours ago, Team Uzi said:

Russians have a lot of really kewl toys at their disposal.

Americans have a regime of nincompoops that aren't even Caucasian.

That being said, Putin can drink, swim and go shoot a lion in the face without losing any sleep over what this geh administration that would have to sit around and sing something more geh and raise taxes to obtain some other geh committee to write something on a piece of paper that some other geh committee would study the impact on the natural habitat of some geh tree toad which resides in the forest of wood that the paper or

source of the pages that the document was written in the first place. And thusly, printed in triplicate and sent to eventually every Libtard mayor in the United States, whereby they all go to Starbucks and order a medium chia seed enhanced latte sprinkled with gluten free carob chips and kale powder.

So, what the phuque is Putin worried about?

Putin isn't worried about anything

http://imgur.com/lFHYN3q

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 COBO Member    3,443
2 minutes ago, Team Uzi said:

Government never does anything well.

Especially Libtard regimes.

They couldn't engineer their way out of a wet paper bag.

I'm not terribly concerned about war against Russia at this time.

Russia is anxious to see the Obama regime exit the White House as much as true Americans do.

They are probably looking forward to working with President Trump.

I agree for the most part. But we all know there are powerful forces behind this Admin and the Dem candidate. Regardless of who's behind the recent data dumps, we can all see the plots unfolding.

The most un-nerving is the fact that our MSM is up to it in their eyeballs. My son told me earlier today that he hasn't heard anything about the recent developments in Syria or Russian declarations of a no-fly zone. Now he's not in a sensitive position where he's stationed (USN), but typically, rumors would be running rampant throughout the military by now. Not to mention, in his position, if the push to repair ships that were unable to get underway came down, he'd be one of the first to know. As a sidenote, he took a chance while I was out there recently and let me get a few "drive-by" pics of THE high-tech destroyer that was forced to make an emergency visit for repairs of what I consider one of the stupidest engineering/construction moves ever. (Hint: Think Hot Springs, AR years back when a tour boat (WWII amphib) sank killing several passengers).

My point is, if our own military is being shielded from what we believe is the truth... well just take it FWIW.

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