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Cinnamon

Hurricane Matthew: N.C.,S.C. parts of FL evacuations in effect (S.Carolina,N.Carolina, FL and GA declared states of emergency)

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 garlic    2,639

I thought I would add that this is not the only monster system right now. There is one headed to Japan too!

 

Typhoon 21W (Chaba)

8 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 2, Japan time: Here's the latest wind-forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1:

-- 40-mph sustained winds or greater: 10 a.m. Monday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds or greater: 2 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 144-mph sustained winds, 173-mph gusts: 8 p.m. Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Just shy of super-typhoon status, but unquestionably a beast. Stay indoors. You only get one chance. Get your safe on!

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/typhoon-21w-chaba-22-1.431235

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 YaKnow2.0    955

Weather warfare at its best!!We will see a sharp turn be taken by Mathew rite along this east coast but the eye will be pushed off shore when it gets to about south carolina. Thats where the military steps in and puts the buffer zone around dc

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 COBO Member    4,318
2 hours ago, CGK said:

I thought I would add that this is not the only monster system right now. There is one headed to Japan too!

 

Typhoon 21W (Chaba)

8 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 2, Japan time: Here's the latest wind-forecast timeline from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. U.S. bases remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1:

-- 40-mph sustained winds or greater: 10 a.m. Monday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds or greater: 2 p.m. Monday.
-- Peak 144-mph sustained winds, 173-mph gusts: 8 p.m. Monday.
-- Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Just shy of super-typhoon status, but unquestionably a beast. Stay indoors. You only get one chance. Get your safe on!

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/typhoon-21w-chaba-22-1.431235

Heh heh..."Earthspots".

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 garlic    2,639

In other words..they don't have a damn clue where this thing is going. (they never do until its too late to prepare or evacuate) If you live anywhere that is 200 miles from the ocean you better prepare now for bad weather.

 

Beyond midweek, the outlook for Matthew remains fairly murky. The operational runs of the GFS and European models both take Matthew on a curving northeastward path that parallels the Southeast U.S. coast, drawing within 100 miles of the North Carolina coast by Saturday or Sunday before moving further offshore. The 12Z Sunday UKMET model--the other of our best three track models--is the outlier, bringing Matthew northwest from the Bahamas toward central Florida by next weekend. The 50 members of the Euro ensemble runs from Sunday (see Figure 6) continue to indicate the possibility of a landfall along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic or Northeast coast (or the south coast of Nova Scotia, Canada) a week or more from now, although most of the members keep Matthew offshore north of North Carolina. The 18Z GFS ensemble shows only a small minority of runs producing any U.S. landfall, mainly in the Outer Banks of NC.

For now, Matthew’s track beyond the Bahamas is still uncertain enough that coastal residents from Florida to Canada should be on the alert for possible impacts in a few days, especially given this hurricane’s strength and breadth. Note that long-range computer models may overestimate Matthew’s strength north of the Carolinas. Much cooler waters there would likely bring Matthew below major-hurricane strength in less than a day’s time, although it could still be a strong hurricane or post-tropical cyclone with huge surf as far north as Canada. Beach erosion may become a major issue later this week if Matthew takes its time moving northward off the East Coast.

More: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/category-4-hurricane-matthew-continues-northwest-toward-greater-antill

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 garlic    2,639

They still have no idea where the storm is headed. Its slow and moving due north as of 11 am. Slow is NOT good for anyone. We need this thing to start racing ahead at 20 kt or so, but that's not going to happen. Also, the UKMET model has been one of the more accurate models this year.

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

<snip>

Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5, with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a little left of the latest multi-model consensus. While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

More:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/031457.shtml

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 garlic    2,639

Mark is the voice of reason! He's not a doom doom doom guy. He gives us straight talk.

 

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 Cinnamon    28,948
5 minutes ago, CGK said:

Mark is the voice of reason! He's not a doom doom doom guy. He gives us straight talk.

 

They better not call The Clinton Foundation into Haiti!

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