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The CIA has a team of clairvoyants

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 DarkKnightNomeD    2,078

The men and women who stare at goatse. :laugh:

@Lucy Barnable - Who else do I tag that likes this stuff?


The CIA has a team of clairvoyants



If the CIA had a crystal ball, then they would probably not be routinely blindsided by world events. Lacking such a device, the agency has endured notable analytical failures. During the early 1990s, sudden collapses of Somalia, Zaire, Rwanda, and the Soviet Union seemingly appeared without warning.

Strategic surprises have always been a problem for intelligence agencies. The material impossibility of having eyes everywhere requires making judgments without seeing a complete picture, let alone the future. Assessing the likeliness of future rare political events has had dubious reliability.

Thus, in 1994, the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence commissioned the Political Instability Task Force (PITF), formerly known as the State Failure Task Force, a clairvoyant-esque squad of social-scientist brainiacs charged with churning global political data into global instability forecasts.

The creation of the PITF began at end of the Cold War. The PITF's mission is straightforward  —  make intelligence analysis as holistic as possible, and locate where the next crisis might be, and why.

"The collapse of the Soviet Union completely caught the government off guard. Their models didn't capture that at all. [Their models] didn't even accept it," Monty Marshall, a senior consultant for the PITF and director of the Center for Systemic Peace told War Is Boring.

"The intelligence community was looking for alternative explanations," he added. "The old way of thinking, wasn't catching the new dynamics, trends, that don't fit into the way they understand things."

To meet this task, the team recruited from American academia and included leading political scientists, sociologists and methodologists. In the beginning, they focused on variables as broad as environmental degradation and social conflict. The focus later shifted to cover four main topics  —  revolutionary and ethnic civil war onset, adverse regime change, state collapse, and genocide.

PITF calculates each event's chance of occurring with probabilistic forecasts from six months to two years out, in 167 countries, which the team monitors on a daily basis. Within every country, the PITF's global model accounts for baseline political dynamics, and disruptions in patterns within these dynamics.

The results of the forecasts hold impressive heuristic accuracy. "[With] what this approach can do  —  probabilistic models  —  they're stuck at about 80 percent accuracy. That's good. That's why we're still around," Marshall said.

In addition to accurate forecasting, the PITF's reports inform the intelligence community and U.S. policymakers. According to Marshall, the PITF's reports are used mainly for the National Intelligence Council's annual intelligence estimates.

Interestingly, the relationship between military coups and civil wars are closer than previously thought. According to the PITF's data, government officials will often resort to regime change as a tactic to prevent civil war from occurring.

"A relatively strong government will try [a military coup] to avoid a conflict dynamic that would otherwise lead to civil war," Marshall said. "Sometimes they are successful at averting civil war and sometimes they are not."

"We discovered that the lead indicator was an obscure variable in the data, which we call factionalism," he added. "That is the most powerful driver in the global model, and the most powerful driver at predicting regime change."


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 Guitar Doc    1,571
4 minutes ago, DarkKnightNomeD said:


I am a Jedi... :D

The film was a deliberate mockery.

The original book however is a true account of what the military ( not the intelligence agencies, they have been doing different things with their psychic people.) Was experimenting with at the that time period.


People might not be aware of the military studies but they suggest that 30% of the general population is psychic enough to know when they are being lied to. The tailor disinformation to take this into account.

Good disinformation contains enough truth to overcome the people who can instinctively detect lies.

L Ron Hubbard always said Sweeten the lie with a little truth.


My wife is highly psychic and rarely incorrect. I get her to check out people I am suspicious of. She has saved me from grief many times.

A couple of times I was being taken for a ride and she tipped me off and I was able to test and confirm her Intel.

You can't hide from people like her. I would never tell her a lie either.

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 garlic    2,639

Dk..CIA has a team of everything! As long as you and I are not on their team...There is hope for America! It only takes one to stand up and change the world...Just saying,,,



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