Jump to content
Our website is made possible by displaying online advertisements to our visitors.

Please consider supporting us by disabling your ad blocker.
Jostler

Poking the Bear

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts

 Jostler    2,210

Syria continues to make incremental progress in several areas in spite of recent US sponsored incidents.  

 

I am personally convinced Putin, and likely China have reached the end of their willingness to hope for the best.  The scenario I laid out in this thread June 11th of  last year appears to have materialized.  Even though things seem to have calmed down at least a little on the Korean Peninsula, I am not at all optimistic about  the overall global situation.  I believe that Russia and China both  have become convinced the western  globalists are not going to stop  until they get war.  They are under real threat of  exposure for  their decades of murderous criminality in the US and I suspect their apparent determination to involve us in a massive military  campaign is at least in part motivated by their fear.

Since their ultimate goal is to  rule the  world, and the  US in it's current state represents a true roadblock to that goal, I suspect they're quite willing to pursue a strategy to neutralize that roadblock, even if that  means speeding up their original timetable.

Buckle up.  It's likely to get rough.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 Jostler    2,210

I may comment later.  For now I'm just sickened.  Same old, same old...rebranding, renaming the same old terrorists -  ISIS/Al Qaeda fighters polished up and presented with new names in a dance of deception :/   New US Air Assault activity in western Syria indicates the race to control territory is heating up - with  an eye toward carving Syria up into a confusion of "spheres of influence" leaving greater Syria in a controllable "failed state" condition.  Sick.

 

It does not take much imagination to perceive how Russia must be viewing these developments.  This will not end well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 Jostler    2,210

With all that's going on in the world I'm a bit slower getting these posted :)  Northern Hama seems to continue to be a main thrust for the  Syrian army and they  seem to be getting the job done.  Daraa is extremely vulnerable with US support just across the border in Jordan.  Daraa is one of two areas we're likely to see western/NATO make a move soon....western Syria is another.   The US, and whatever we're calling our terrorist proxies these days seem to be making a push to secure vast areas of Syrian desert in the west, area of little military or economic significance, and probably not a lot of resistance either.  But it will serve well as a political bargaining chip later.

 

Some analysis of the different results Russia is getting with its training of Syrian troops.   The apparent professionalism stands in stark contrast to the rag tag militias we see over and over, expending ammunition just to make noise.   The ones we apparently "trained".

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 Jostler    2,210

With all that is going  on lately I've been as busy  and distracted as anyone :)   But I think keeping track of developments in Syria is as important as it ever was.  Syria continues to make progress in Northern Hama, and every gain  they make puts more pressure on all the  other interests in the area.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 roamer    719

About the Turkish airstrike against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq (April 25) - that puzzle of different groups makes my head spin: the Iraqi Kurds (Peshmerga) have a secret agreement with Turkey, while they get support from the U.S.  On the other hand there are the Syrian Kurds (YPG /YPJ) are supported by Russia and they are a fierce enemy of Turkey, because they have close ties with the PKK - the Kurdish guerilla within Turkey. Furthermore there are the Yezidis, they are protected by the Syrian Kurds (the Yezidi have their own religion). Any questions?

Quote

<snip>

A few hour ago the Turkish airforce hit Kurdish and Yezidi positions on both sides of the Singal mountains in east-Syria and west-Iraq.

<snip>

The YPK is now likely to divert forces from the U.S. led attack on the Islamic State in Raqqa to protect against further Turkish adventures. The PKK within Turkey may restart its guerrilla campaign against the Turkish military. The Barzani clan will come under renewed pressure by Kurdish people in Iraq as well as by the Iraqi government to loosen its ties with Turkey. All sides will blame the U.S. and its operations against Syria and the Islamic State.

The whole mess in Syria and Iraq thus becomes even more complicate than it already was.

source: http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/04/turkish-airstrikes-complicate-us-operations-in-iraq-and-syria.html

Edited by roamer
link added
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 Jostler    2,210
22 minutes ago, roamer said:

About the Turkish airstrike against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq (April 25) - that puzzle of different groups makes my head spin: the Iraqi Kurds (Peshmerga) have a secret agreement with Turkey, while they get support from the U.S.  On the other hand there are the Syrian Kurds (YPG /YPJ) are supported by Russia and they are a fierce enemy of Turkey, because they have close ties with the PKK - the Kurdish guerilla within Turkey. Furthermore there are the Yezidis, they are protected by the Syrian Kurds (the Yezidi have their own religion). Any questions?

source: http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/04/turkish-airstrikes-complicate-us-operations-in-iraq-and-syria.html

"What a tangled web we weave..."

I  wonder what interest of Russia's is worth protecting more than it's interests in Syria?  I doubt these aircraft are being pulled out because the job in Syria is "done".

Russia Has Withdrawn Half Of Its Fighter Jet Group From Syria

I'd love  to know where those birds end up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 roamer    719
1 hour ago, Jostler said:

Russia Has Withdrawn Half Of Its Fighter Jet Group From Syria

I'd love  to know where those birds end up.

They did the same one year ago, but I haven't yet checked whether the timing is similar. The reason seems to be the frequency of sand storms during this time of the year. If the Russian helicopters remain in Syria, then it is a clear indication that this move happened due to spring weather conditions - afaik the Russian helicopters are tried-and-tested under these conditions. But I'm just quoting articles which I've read one year ago from memory, so please don't rely on my info.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 Jostler    2,210
14 minutes ago, roamer said:

They did the same one year ago, but I haven't yet checked whether the timing is similar. The reason seems to be the frequency of sand storms during this time of the year. If the Russian helicopters remain in Syria, then it is a clear indication that this move happened due to spring weather conditions - afaik the Russian helicopters are tried-and-tested under these conditions. But I'm just quoting articles which I've read one year ago from memory, so please don't rely on my info.

I just checked and  last year's withdrawal took place around the 14th of March, 2016 so  you're spot on with the timing. 

https://sputniknews.com/trend/russia_syria_jets_withdrawal_2016/

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704261053021976-russia-withdraws-aircraft-syria/

Edited by Jostler
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 Jostler    2,210

And today....plus some new analysis :)  Better late than never :)   Please forgive the lack of comment, I'm just now watching them myself :)

Edit to add:   OMG....Southfront has a penchant for understatement at times, and that video above is an amazing example.  If the YPG has "ceased operations" with US forces as stated, we just lost the ONLY allied military force we had with any military capability or credibility at all.    Erdogan is proceeding pretty much as expected...   Collision course...

 

Edited by Jostler

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 Jostler    2,210

And today's Southfront report just out.   The tension (and confrontations) between YPG and Turkish forces escalate again with a YPG strike on a Turkish installation.  That is unlikely to go unanswered.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 roamer    719
7 hours ago, Jostler said:

Edit to add:   OMG....Southfront has a penchant for understatement at times, and that video above is an amazing example.  If the YPG has "ceased operations" with US forces as stated, we just lost the ONLY allied military force we had with any military capability or credibility at all.    Erdogan is proceeding pretty much as expected...   Collision course...

 

Erdogan is eager to become an U.S. ally, replacing the Kurds. At the moment this looks like a strategic debate with regard to Raqqa, but the implications are obvious: if the U.S. drop their support for the Syrian Kurds, then we will see the Kurds joining forces with Syria / Russia / Iran -- and I'm sure the U.S. are trying to prevent that move.

Quote

<snip>

Turkey has long been annoyed by U.S. support for the YPG militia, seen by the Pentagon as a reliable partner in Syria but by Ankara as a hostile force linked to Kurdish PKK militants who have waged a three-decade insurgency against the Turkish state.

It is particularly frustrated by the use of YPG fighters in a planned U.S.-led offensive to retake Islamic State's Syrian stronghold of Raqqa on the northeast bank of the Euphrates river, an operation Ankara has long sought to join.

"Why are we asking for help from terrorist organisations? We are here," Erdogan said at an energy conference in Istanbul. "Turkey, coalition forces led by the United States and the Free Syrian Army all together can wipe them (Islamic State) out. This is not a difficult thing for us," he said.

<snip>

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-syria-idUSKBN17U19K

Edited by roamer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up to our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


  1. Jump To Top
×