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Jostler

Poking the Bear

144 posts in this topic

58 minutes ago, roamer said:

@sybdragon  There is a trailing blank in your link. Just omit the blank and it works (at least in my browser):

http://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/About/FactSheets/Display/tabid/9106/Article/192527/403rd-wing.aspx

 

I was surprised because Keesler is an Asia force. My Dad was always in the Asian areas. Philippines, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan. Back to Keesler. When he retired, he was teaching at Keesler I think. Some type of master sgt. I didn't keep up with that stuff being a kid. I didn't salute anyone and the number of stripes was enough for me to know who you were in position. LOL

I do listen to that guy in the vid sometimes. I like him and he does think about his stuff. I like that about him.

If I didn't know better, I would think they were going to actually give the Kurds an area of their own. Looking at it, I can believe that Russia and the USA decided with Syria and Iraq to give the Kurds control of their tribal lands. And the holdout is Turkey. Turkey does not want to give up any area to anyone and not to the Kurds especially. I think Turkey is trying to stop this and Israel is going to join with Turkey. Different alinement going on? Turkey and Israel against Syria and Kurds? USA and Russia with Syria. The Kurds are a sideline and the USA promised a long time ago that they would help them get their homeland. Way back in Saddam's day. And Saddam gassed them over it too. I think this is the first time they have been strong enough to do anything since. And I think they have been promised a homeland by Iraq and Syria and USA and Russia. I think Turkey and Israel are not happy about the plan. Turkey with the Kurds and Israel with the Russian port. I would say this report sounds like it's truth. Russia is just doing what they are suppose to do. Deny until the Kurds land is a done deal. They need to break that area up into tribal areas so there is not so much fighting. This diversity thing is not working.

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I think Russia is part of this plan. I think Syria has fallen. Cinn brought it to my attention that Syria was one of only four countries left without the world's bank. If this was the goal and I think it was, that goal has been reached. I think the deal is.... Syria will go on the central bank system like the rest of the world. The Kurds will be given their country. Russia will move down into that port they wanted. The pipeline will go in and whoever wanted that will be happy.

N. Korea is also not on that bank system. And look at them. The USA is technically still at war with them. We could wop them on the head if we wanted to. China would really not get involved to much I do not think. Not at this point. They will later on but right now, they are building up. China does not do things without planning it as I expect all countries do. Nothing is done without them thinking about it. Even Trump's stupid little tweets.

Turkey is not going to be happy with giving the Kurds their own place. And Turkey was profiting off the oil of the terrorists as Turkey was "laundering" the oil for them. They were making money, lots of money. That ends now. Turkey can see some of those terrorists running to them because of this nice little arrangement. Maybe Turkey is trying to get rid of the evidence? :gsbrnint:

Israel says that the boats Russia puts down there disrupts their traffic flow and they fought to get them out of there. But I think the USA is going to withdraw from there to move into the East and the China Sea. So there will be plenty of room for the Russian ships to play around there and not get in the way.

The USA wants Russia to be at least neutral in this upcoming fight. Or they want Russia on our side. Russia is not that huge and all but they are the ones that will hurt the EU if they are drawn into a war NATO gets into with China. And the Chinese are pushing for global control and the USA will fight to hold it. Power does not go down easily.

I think after this war with China is ongoing or ends is when something might happen in the ME. They will be like sharks in the water coming after blood. Wanting to get into all the spoils. Russia is just playing at the big scary monster that would let 'em fly. I think all these countries have this planned out. Russia got a treaty to enlist military men from S. Ossetia, which was part of Georgia. Everyone is building up their armies right now. Building up equipment too. I think it will be a little while but I think we are going to war when these countries decide they are all prepared. I think within the next 5 years if not less too.

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This website is a drove of info today. lol

This is interesting. Turkey and Greece are having a spat. Is NATO going to be thrown out or members going to leave it? This is a very old spat, before NATO even. But something to watch still.. 
https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702231050979715-greece-turkey-nato-quarrel/
Snippet: If NATO is one big family with the principle of collective defense at its very heart, the ongoing bickering over national security between two of its members surely raises questions, reflecting poorly on the military bloc's name. 

This is interesting too. https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702181050828050-four-nato-countries-russia/
Snippet: Residents of four NATO member states would prefer a military alliance with Russia, if their countries were attacked. This is evidenced by results of a global survey conducted among residents of 66 countries by sociologists from WIN/Gallup International.

Russia was chosen by residents Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia and Turkey as the main guarantor of their security. In case of an attack, all these countries want to see Russian forces fighting on their side, the survey revealed.

The poll comes as US Defense Secretary James Mattis threatened to cut US defense commitments unless all NATO members met the spending target.

For instance, the Chinese have chosen Russia as their favorable ally, while the Russians, in their turn, preferred to work with the Chinese.

According to the vice president of WIN / Gallup International, Kancho Stoychev, the outcome of the poll shows that the US policy over the last 20 years has led to a rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing.

Russian and Chinese officials have repeatedly said that the bilateral ties have reached a peak in their entire history, noting that the relations are of strategic importance.

Then you find an article like this one. It's around a month old. https://sputniknews.com/military/201702181050805503-nato-interested-russia-ties/
Snippet: "We are strongly in favor of dialogue with Russia … from the predictable position," Stoltenberg said at a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

https://sputniknews.com/world/201702141050663748-nato-reform-us-eu-russia/
Snippet: Bitterlich and Matlock agreed that US President Donald Trump's criticism of NATO and the crises facing the EU have provided a chance for both to reform, and build a more reasonable relationship with Russia.
"It will not happen overnight," Bitterlich said. "Those things take time and both sides need to save face, but if there is a will, there is a way. Americans will try to find this way under Trump, and it would be a good idea for Europeans to do the same and top this American effort."

During his election campaign, Trump cast doubt regarding US readiness to come to the defense of NATO allies in the event of attack, citing the unwillingness of most members to meet the alliance's guidelines regarding defense expenditures: 2 percent of GDP.


https://sputniknews.com/military/201703211051824888-nato-defence-spending-rise/

So many articles pointing toward war. Little spats going on to see who goes where. It's all interesting and moving very, very fast. I also found this article. It's about Trump and his close relationship with Russian business... Trump wants Putin on our side of stuff. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-innocent-explanation

And this is just a good article I found on the 'deep state'. I wonder how this is going to play in all this.... http://canadafreepress.com/article/obamas-third-term-is-here

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I hate to load you up with articles. I read them all. I will try to pick out what I think are dots in them. You read them if you want to and see if you get another dot than I got. It would be easier if others come to the thread if they can go back and read these dots so they are not arguing or asking the same questions we've already answered or explained. Might shorten our posts some. LOL I may not write books. I just get excited and start writing. lol I will try not to. I will post some links unless you don't want them. I find them in batches as one leads to the other. So much to look at too. But you mentioned Turkey and Turkey keeps coming up. :) 

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Southfront picks up  on the Russian/YPG cooperation as well today.   Looking at the  map, this appears to be another Putin masterstroke across every level of this situation.   On the ground, it's both tactically and a strategically significant move, and politically....omg...lol.   Look at the map and you'll find this enclave of the YPG is very isolated.   Militant former Al Qaeda forces south of them and hostile Turks cutting them off from the east.   Where are the YPG's tried and true "allies" (US).   We're over on the far side of the Turkish forces, focused on taking Raqqa, while not *appearing* to show the slightest concern for YPG interests in an isolated, vulnerable pocket off on the  other side of Erdogan's territory.   We promised them a self-directed homeland, but  when that goal is paramount and needing military  support in the eyes of the YPG, do any US troops or equipment appear?  Or do we just tie up YPG forces to bleed for our goals and go balls to the wall for Raqqa?

And who steps into the breach with troops and equipment that WILL make Erdogan think twice about attacking their little isolated pocket to the west?  Why Russia does.  Which also positions Russia right next door to Idlib province to the south of this YPG enclave....which in turn is exactly where (Idlib) rumours have swirled for  weeks about regathering, refitting and rearming terrorists. 

The YPG and Assad's government have had their differences in the past, but those differences have seldom come to physical blows.  There is potential for diplomatic settlement by negotiations of issues between those two power blocs.   YPG have had self-autonomous regions within  Syria before  now, by negotiation, and that's still what they say they  want.

Now with closer alliance between YPG and Russian forces, I'd say that diplomacy has an even better chance of resolving issues between the YPG and Assad.   In that case both parties actually WANT a solution that ends hostility. 

I'll quit rabbiting  on, but this looks to me like yet  another Putin master stroke riding on  the wings of boldness and a clear  unwavering vision of what Putin wants.   He's just put forces in a place where his  presence gives SEVERAL factions maximum reason to remain quiet and peaceful.   And if they fail to see reason and decide to get froggy anyway, he's right where he needs to be to kick ass and take names.   And when someone asks the YPG "Who's ya Daddy!?" are they more or less likely to respond "Uncle Sugar".  How many are thinking "Papa Bear" might be a better answer since last week? :)    Putin is no dummy.

 

Edited by Jostler
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1 hour ago, Jostler said:

Putin is no dummy.

Basically Erdogan blew his wad with Russia and Putin is now brokering peace between Assad and the Kurds. LOL. Just turn Erdogan loose on the decks of NATO ships and watch him crash through the bulkhead LMAO!!

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34 minutes ago, Brio said:

Basically Erdogan blew his wad with Russia and Putin is now brokering peace between Assad and the Kurds. LOL. Just turn Erdogan loose on the decks of NATO ships and watch him crash through the bulkhead LMAO!!

lol....Erdogan is already doing it :)   That guy is a walking disaster zone :)   Picking  fights with the  Dutch, the Germans, poking  the  unending  Greek situation...lying to everyone including Putin.

Putin must feel like the  only adult in a kindergarten where lunch was crystal meth.

I didn't think Putin would put up with Erdogan's two faced bit.  I think he got  enough  of that from Obama and Kerry he'd about  had his limit before he started courting Erdogan after Turkey shot that bomber down.  And I think he  knew what to expect.  That manuever has  served its purpose and Putin seems to be putting ALL the  hotheads, including Israel, on notice that he means what he says and he says it straight.

They would do well to believe him, and tbh that's the only force in the ME that has kept it from blowing sky high this long.

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I should have posted this yesterday, but here it is.  

This report begins showing how the FSE (Erdogan allied) have begun some fierce actions against government forces in areas not directly adjacent  to Turkish held areas.  These are also the forces I am certain are tied to McStain's neocon faction.   As usual, they've taken advantage of so called cease fires coming  out of Astana as a time to refit and rearm.  Now they appear to be actively attacking again and very forcefully.

 

Today's report expands on the tale. (next post)

There is also a report on Mosul which is of secondary importance right at this moment.  Basically more progress in capturing western Mosul from ISIS, but still painfully slow.  The outcome (ISIS crushed) looks pretty inevitable but there's still a lot of hard fighting to go unless they surrender suddenly.   I'm doubtful they will.

 

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Homs is now hosting very significant battles that are forcing Assad to pull in reinforcements, which slows things down in the areas he's been making very good headway.  The eastern portions of Damascus have been hard hit for several days as well.  YPG forces have been brought to the east side of the Euphrates by  US air operation (I'd assume Air Assault - helicopter borne) and I am willing to bet US forces are with them.  With Assad having to pull back forces from his own push to secure Deir Hafer and push on toward Raqqa, the timing here is interesting to say the least.

I was expecting Assad to do everything he could to keep US and US backed YPG forces on the east side of the Euphrates, much the same as he successfully raced Turkish troops and cut them off before they could take more turf toward Raqqa.

He may have been out raced by US/YPG forces in this case.

Whatever is going on, I suspect very deep involvement of US soldiers in this air assault operation and that is likely to mean casualties.  It's not confirmed yet that I can tell, but if I'm right it won't take too long before our involvement is confirmed by coming events.

 

 

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Things have been intensifying in Syria along a number of fault lines.   Turkey's relationship with Russia appears to be deteriorating rapidly as well.  Hard to tell if the reported death of a Turkish soldier is real, or an excuse Erdogan has manufactured pending an attack on US/YPG forces.  Pretty tense situation for sure.

 

 

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More buttons being pushed.   They're just not going to stop til someone is glowing...

 

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