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Jostler

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Jostler last won the day on January 20

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  1. Poking the Bear

    More excellent background for those wanting a more informed background understanding to fit future developments into. I'll get to Turkey shortly How America Armed Terrorists in Syria
  2. Poking the Bear

    The situation in Syria is smokin' hot right now. We're fast approaching a crisis point and one of the main difficulties we have understanding it all is the complexity introduced by having so many factions involved with so many different, mutually exclusive goals. Plus the fact that few are being anything like open and honest about their real aims. I'm going to try to assemble few posts over time that try to identify the main players and explore their objectives, and maybe try to compare stated vs. real objectives. I'll make Turkey my first target in the next post, but this bears watching right now. Key background: Turks hate Kurds, neither Turks nor Kurds are Arabs, and the Kurds are the main US allies in Syria. The SDF IS a Kurdish fighting force and if Turkey attacks them it's likely to involve attacks on US forces very quickly with unpredictable consequences. There are a few militarily useless "Arab" units in the SDF, but they are nothing more than a propaganda "fig leaf" allowing the US to pretend the SDF is a legitimate "moderate rebel" force seeking to overthrow Assad. Most the "arab" units in the SDF are not even Syrian citizens, they're Islamic mercenaries.
  3. This whole market/economy/monetary mess has been a train wreck looking for a place to happen for ages now. With war drums beating at deafening levels now, it's even more of an issue now and risks are increasing. It's not far fetched to speculate these issues are one of the big reasons the war drums ARE getting so loud: More Deutsche Bank troubles: Deutsche Faces $60MM Derivative Loss For Inflation Bet Gone Bad Central banks ALWAYS make asinine statements like this, right before the wheels come off: Yellen: "I Don't Believe We Will See Another Crisis In Our Lifetime"
  4. Poking the Bear

    ISIS launches a surprisingly strong counter-attack as the end of the Battle for Mosul approaches. Another Syrian Army analysis piece for those interested in the "deeper" details
  5. Evidently they did "want to" Italy Bank Bailouts Send European, Global Stocks Higher; Gold Flash Crashes
  6. Poking the Bear

    More Israeli air strikes ...third day in a row :/ Apparently against government positions and in direct support of terrorist operations.
  7. After the close, Friday, June 16th: Deutsche Bank (NYSE): 16.64 -0.10 (-0.60%) At close: 4:02PM EDT for reference: the all time stock low in US trading (dollars) = $11.19 per share Deutsche Bank (XETRA): 14.90 -0.15 (-0.96%) At close: 5:35PM CEST for reference: the all time stock low in European trading (Euros) = 9.90 Euros per share Gold spot: Time (EST): 1256.60 +6.60 +0.53% i Silver spot: Time (EST): 16.68 +0.16 +0.97% FTSE Itialia Banche - 10,633.57 -0.43 Date - Time Last Value 06/23/17 - 5:35:57 PM (watch this one at the open....she might get frisky ) DB CoCo Bonds: Last: Last: 98.75 Change: +0.22 Change in %: +0.223 PEMEX - ExxonMobil Plans to Import Fuel to Mexico to Supply Its Gas Stations https://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices (as at close of NY trading on Friday) Dow 30 21,394.76 -2.53 -0.01% S&P 500 2,438.30 +3.80 +0.16%23 Nasdaq 6,265.25 +28.57 +0.46% SmallCap 2000 1,414.44 +10.47 +0.75% S&P 500 VIX 10.02 -0.46 -4.39% https://www.investing.com/currencies/streaming-forex-rates-majors EUR/USD 1.1194 +0.0043 +0.39% USD/JPY 111.28 -0.04 -0.04% GBP/USD 1.2718 +0.0037 +0.29% USD/CNY 6.8358 +0.0013 +0.02% US Dollar Index 96.98 -0.28 -0.29%2,796.02 BTC/USD 2,518.12, -58.4 -2.27% BTC/EUR 2,254.42 -5.1 -0.23% Two Italian Zombie Banks Toppled Friday Night Two banks, they're small and wouldn't be *too* hard to paper over...IF they want to
  8. two Italian banks bit the dust Friday and now Syria appears to be exploding. Coincidence? We'll know in a few hrs. I'll get a snapshot up.:
  9. Poking the Bear

    two Italian banks bit the dust Friday and now Syria appears to be exploding. Coincidence? We'll know in a few hrs. I'll get a snapshot up.: Edit: wrong thread, but it works here too
  10. Poking the Bear

    I have been unsuccessful at confirming any US drones have been shot down. There does seem to be fairly good evidence a Russian air defense missle, likely from the S-300 air defense system was fired toward the Mediterranean from the coast of Syria. I had no luck proving what the target was, if any. Lots of speculation that the target was a Global Hawk drone, but none I felt came close to proving it. Here's Southfront's most recent update: Having watched and appreciated Southfront's reporting for some time now, I personally believe they do work to keep their reporting and analysis away from sensationalism and seriously attempt to be balanced and truthful. They are audience supported and if you can spare a few bucks to help them defray costs, I feel they provide a service worthy of truth lovers support:
  11. Poking the Bear

    Here's a recent puzzle too. It's looking like we're setting the stage to go all out on both Hezbollah and the Iraniakn backed PMU's moving to secure the Iraqi side of the Iraqi/Syrian border. So much in flux right now... 'Hezbollah presence in southern Syria a big threat to Israel' Gen. Joseph Dunford warns Hezbollah presence in Syria dangerous because it 'would give Israel two fronts to deal with' if Hezbollah attacks.ic The article focuses on the "tri-border" area which is Daraa and nearby areas. But I'm seeing reports of Jordanian troops moving accross the border into the Al Tanf region as well.....PLUS rumors 1000 Syrian allied troops pushing into one of those areas right this minute. I usually try to avoid mentioning too much before I have seen it reported in two or three places, but right now there is such a "swirl" of unconfirmed reports it's making me think something really is changing fast on the ground in Syria. Keep in mind, that the shredded fig leaf of "legitimacy" we're hiding behind to justify our presence in Syria is ISIS. Once ISIS has fully collapsed our whole reason for being in Syria turns to dust. If we're going to remain in Syria (and I'm sure we will) we'll need a new set of emperor's clothes to justify it. I suspect Hezbollah will be the fig leaf we try to hide behind next. And I think Dunford gave us a timing clue in the article linked above: I suspect that one paragraph pretty much reveals how we're going to try to play this near term. It's reasonable to expect another incremental hardening of Russia's stance and some clear diplomatic calls for us to get out once ISIS is no longer a viable excuse for our presence. Hezbollah is makes a useful new focus because they're not likely to leave unless forced to, and and they're a proxy of our real target ...Iran. Still waiting for more confirmation of shot down drones, Jordanian armor flowing into southern Syria, Syrian troops repositioning into southern Syria (some are saying it's Hezbollah units), more Turkish troops arriving in Qatar, and rumors a Saudi attack on Qatar is imminent. Now adding in @roamer's report of Saudi support for Kurds...Saudi Royal power struggles, India doing airlifts to get Indian citizens out of Qatar. Just the sheer volume of rumours flying has me on the alert. Time will tell if some of this IS just rumour...but I'm edgy enough about how it all feels right now to stay focused for a day or two til we know. One final thought. IF Russia has shot down six of our drone, that is probably going to mean a significant fraction of our TOTAL drone capacity dedicated to Syria is now gone. I'd guess 25-30% of our capacity. We have more, but relocating those is likely to take a few days, and a lot can happen in few days with reduced recon capacity.
  12. Poking the Bear

    The battle for Mosul is probably entering the mop-up stage. u Some big picture analysis of the situation with Qatar I think today's really important news will revolve around US drones downed by Russian air defenses in Syria. If a fraction of the rumours now swirling prove true, we have very serious new developments under way.
  13. Poking the Bear

    Daraa is finally heating up. I expected it before now, and I expected US backed forces to initiate the attacks.....so wrong on timing and wrong about who would be ramping up the clashes. Daraa and Deir ez Zor have both been places the Syrian government has clung to against all odds. If you look at the map, that red "finger" of Syrian controlled territory extending from Damascus, south to Daraa near the Jordanian border has looked to me like it was vulnerable to being cut between Daraa and Damascus. Which would have allowed Syrian forces in Daraa to be surrounded, besieged and eliminated. With what we can assume to be virtually unlimited US/Israeli supply and medical support just a few kilometers away across the Jordanian border, an operation like that seemed a no brainer to me for a long time. But, it never happened. Now, with recent developments surrounding the downing of that Syrian jet, I suspect US air supoport for our proxies is not a viable option...at least for the moment. Syria's attack was apparently rebuffed pretty soundly and the cost in equipment was evidently significant, but they've begun. We'll see what develops over the next few days and get some better idea of who holds the strongest cards down there. Lots of other moves being made by many players across the rest of the chess board: Turkish troops arrive at northern Aleppo to fight Kurds Germany pulls forces out of Incirlik as Turkey marches on Kurds in Syria If Turkey really does begin serious attacks on the Kurds (SDF) in the north, our own presence at Incirlik in Turkey is likely to become a very sticky issue really fast.
  14. Poking the Bear

    I'm only guessing, but it seems possible this fast hardening commitment to pure propaganda by the SDF/YPG leaders has some roots in the upcoming "Iraqi Kurdistan" referendum scheduled for September. Whatever the reason, the cooperation between Syrian/Russian/YPG forces we saw in Afrin and Manbij appears to be ancient history now. Australia Suspends Military Flights Over Syria, Citing "Potential Threats" From Russiaa Probably a smart move. I doubt Putin is playing. Why is non-NATO Australia involved here at all? US Jet Shoots Down Syrian Army Drone In "Dangerous Escalation" Third aircraft in a week. Two unmanned and one piloted "Provocative" Russian Jet Comes Within 5 Feet Of US Recon Aircraft 5 feet my foot. 50, maybe...AND...the rest of the story: Nato holds first war games on vulnerable Baltic corridor Remind me? Exactly what is our interest in the Baltic Sea?
  15. Poking the Bear

    i was hoping the Kurds and the Syrian government might actually find a way to compromise and negotiate something they could both live with. Not looking too hopeful now... This won't be helping things either: Iran Launches Missile Strikes Against "Terror Bases" In Eastern Syria
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