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Hurricane Joaquin

52 posts in this topic

This storm is starting to really get organized. Anyone located on the East Coast of the US, from the Carolina's North, might want to start their Hurricane Preps.

Joaquin has an eye, is a Cat 2 right now and shows no signs of slowing down.

Hurricane Joaquin

 

 

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Levi always does a great job with his forecasts and explaining what is going on with the storms.

 

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Joaquin reaches Cat 3!

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.  A turn
toward the northwest and north is forecast Thursday night or Friday.
 The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of
the central Bahamas overnight and Thursday, and be near or over
portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts.  Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible Thursday night and Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
data is 951 mb (28.09 inches).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/010249.shtml

 

 

 

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NYC here. I will be installing a weather station at my home tomorrow.
If and when this storm hits NYC, I will post weather station readings
such as sustained winds, wind gusts, inches per hour, pressures, etc.

Edited by Cryptic Mole

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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures. In the western North Pacific, the term "super typhoon" is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph.

Read More and Watch Animated Wind Destruction: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

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Ocean View Delaware here, 4 1/2 miles from the beach, less than 1 from the Indian River and Inlet. I'm betting on the long-imagined "Delmarva Doomsday" path. Straight, but slowly, up th eChesapeake Bay. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_10011036_hd25.jpg

That path will hammer the Peninsula from BOTH sides with winds and flooding. If it goes slowly enough, major flooding on both sides with huge buildups of such over a couple days. Should as always be "interesting" ;-) As our wildlife has been disturbingly vanishing all summer, I'm up for some "interest"! ;-)

DID get majorly spoiled by family with a gorgeous new long lens, a 200-500mm Sigma, in case this storm blows in some non-local plumage. Which, of Course means the storm will be another let-down, right? :ph34r::1XqXnoz:

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NYC here. I will be installing a weather station at my home tomorrow.
If and when this storm hits NYC, I will post weather station readings
such as sustained winds, wind gusts, inches per hour, pressures, etc.

That's wonderful Mole. Its always nice to have someone on the ground giving us live reports if need be.

 I follow a weather forum and there is a lot of bickering going on at the moment.  Half the members are going with the Euro model which has Joaquin moving out to sea after he hits the Bahamas.  If that's the case, there will be little impact to the East coast other than rain.

The other school of thought has Joaquin hitting anywhere from South Carolina all the way up to the Canadian Maritimes.

Regardless of what the models say, the storm is still a good 72 hours away from impacting the US, if at all.  A lot could change in that period of time.

With a storm of this magnitude located anywhere near the East Coast, its worth keeping an eye on until Joaquin decides where he wants to go.

 

 

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Ocean View Delaware here, 4 1/2 miles from the beach, less than 1 from the Indian River and Inlet. I'm betting on the long-imagined "Delmarva Doomsday" path. Straight, but slowly, up th eChesapeake Bay. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_10011036_hd25.jpg

That path will hammer the Peninsula from BOTH sides with winds and flooding. If it goes slowly enough, major flooding on both sides with huge buildups of such over a couple days. Should as always be "interesting" ;-) As our wildlife has been disturbingly vanishing all summer, I'm up for some "interest"! ;-)

DID get majorly spoiled by family with a gorgeous new long lens, a 200-500mm Sigma, in case this storm blows in some non-local plumage. Which, of Course means the storm will be another let-down, right? :ph34r::1XqXnoz:

At this point, unless something drastically changes  (like a hostile nation using weather modification to steer Joaquin right into DC) its beginning to look like this might be a non event for the US.  We still need to keep an eye on the hurricane although models are now keeping it out at sea.  Time will tell....

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That's wonderful Mole. Its always nice to have someone on the ground giving us live reports if need be.

 I follow a weather forum and there is a lot of bickering going on at the moment.  Half the members are going with the Euro model which has Joaquin moving out to sea after he hits the Bahamas.  If that's the case, there will be little impact to the East coast other than rain.

The other school of thought has Joaquin hitting anywhere from South Carolina all the way up to the Canadian Maritimes.

Regardless of what the models say, the storm is still a good 72 hours away from impacting the US, if at all.  A lot could change in that period of time.

With a storm of this magnitude located anywhere near the East Coast, its worth keeping an eye on until Joaquin decides where he wants to go.

 

 

Those bickering should except the idea that no one except God himself knows
where this thing is headed. I'll even bet some of them will be impacted by it, and
instead of getting ready, they're all arguing. How can anyone argue a point that
no one knows?

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I'm only 1000 feet away from a waterway and only 30 feet above sea level.
The expected flood map should NYC be hit puts me just one block away
from flood zone.

I feel sorry for lower Manhattan. New York blight puts them at greater risk
from storm surge. Sandy hit lower Manhattan hard with completely flooded
subway systems, high rise basements inundated. Everything was down for
weeks.

Edited by Cryptic Mole

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