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octopus prime

Johnson taking votes from Hillary

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http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/05/19/gary-johnson-sees-huge-jump-new-poll-bernie-supporters/
A new national poll of more than 1,000 voters from Fox News shows a new outlook for the presidential race. Donald Trump has taken the lead with 42 percent of the vote, followed by Hillary Clinton with 39 percent of the vote.

But, the most shocking data point is that former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson is polling at 10 percent.


This data would seem to dispel the myth that a strong libertarian candidate hurts the Republican nominee.

One big reason? Johnson’s largest group of support is with younger voters. A stunning 18 percent of voters under age 35 support Johnson. 31 percent support Trump and 40 percent support Clinton.

Previous polls have shown a much larger youth vote gap than in previous polls between Trump and Clinton. That gap is usually no smaller than 20 percent and has been as large as 40 percent. With Johnson rise in the race and with Trump improving numbers, this election has seen a potentially dramatic shift — closing Trump’s youth vote gap to 9 percent.

Looking further into the data, the voters Johnson is taking away from the major candidates would seem to hurt Hillary Clinton worse, as Democrat defectors appear to be young voters who generally support Bernie Sanders.

In the overall numbers, he attracts 8 percent of Democrats, 8 percent of Republicans, and 18 percent of Independents. As younger voters tilt Democrat (64 percent in this poll approve of President Obama), in order for Johnson to attract 18 percent of the youth vote and not hurt Trump’s youth vote numbers, he would need to be winning young Democrats.

This isn’t surprising, as Clinton’s unfavorable number among young voters are now almost as high as Trump’s. 68 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump, 61 percent have an unfavorable view of Clinton. 70 percent of younger voters answered that they do not believe Clinton is honest or trustworthy.

With these new revelations, many eyes will be on Johnson to see if he begins to try to appeal to disenfranchised Sanders supporters. The largest groups of young activists are libertarians and Sanders supporters. If Johnson can continue to persuade Sanders supporters to move from #FeelTheBern to #FeelTheJohnson, he could remain polling in double digits and maybe even make this three-way race competitive.


 

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